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安裝新浪財(cái)經(jīng)客戶端第一時(shí)間接收最全面的市場(chǎng)資訊→【下載地址】 來(lái)源：華爾街見(jiàn)聞 作者：袁偉 一場(chǎng)至關(guān)重要的美債標(biāo)售將有助于衡量投資者們是否確信，2023年的美債拋售浪潮已經(jīng)徹底宣告結(jié)束。 美國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)近來(lái)開(kāi)始的“超級(jí)大反彈”，將在今晚面臨重大考驗(yàn)：美國(guó)財(cái)政部將進(jìn)行規(guī)模160億美元的20年期國(guó)債標(biāo)售。一場(chǎng)至關(guān)重要的美債標(biāo)售將有助于衡量投資者們是否確信，2023年的美債拋售浪潮已經(jīng)徹底宣告結(jié)束。 在通脹放緩和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)降溫跡象的刺激下，海外交易員和投資者最近一頭扎進(jìn)了美國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)，他們相信美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)已經(jīng)完成了加息，并將在明年年中轉(zhuǎn)向降息。與此同時(shí)，此前美國(guó)財(cái)政部宣布的標(biāo)售規(guī)模增幅小于許多債券交易商的預(yù)期，尤其是長(zhǎng)期債券的標(biāo)售，這緩解了部分市場(chǎng)供應(yīng)擔(dān)憂。 在這股強(qiáng)大的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力量推動(dòng)下，美債結(jié)束了六個(gè)月的連跌，并推動(dòng)10年期美債市場(chǎng)在3月份上漲了 2.6%。這是自3月份以來(lái)的最大漲幅，當(dāng)時(shí)人們擔(dān)心銀行業(yè)危機(jī)會(huì)拖垮經(jīng)濟(jì)。 但本月狂熱的美債價(jià)格漲勢(shì)已將$美國(guó)10年期國(guó)債收益率（US10Y.BD）$推至1月以來(lái)最低水平，從而使本周美國(guó)財(cái)政部20年期國(guó)債標(biāo)售的需求，成為投資者判斷近期趨勢(shì)是否有逆轉(zhuǎn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的重要指標(biāo)。  在過(guò)去的一年里，由于出人意料的強(qiáng)勁經(jīng)濟(jì)和頑固的通貨膨脹，債券市場(chǎng)交易商的信心受到了打擊。不斷膨脹的聯(lián)邦赤字也是一個(gè)原因，它考驗(yàn)著市場(chǎng)吸收所有新債的能力。 在過(guò)往三年的大部分時(shí)間里，由于需求遠(yuǎn)不如10年期和30年期國(guó)債，美國(guó)財(cái)政部的20年期國(guó)債標(biāo)售一直是一個(gè)市場(chǎng)負(fù)擔(dān)。同時(shí)，20年期國(guó)債在此期間從未在假期縮短的美國(guó)感恩節(jié)周內(nèi)標(biāo)售過(guò)。今晚標(biāo)售能否獲得成功，格外受到人們的關(guān)注。 對(duì)于市場(chǎng)能否接得住大量美債標(biāo)售的擔(dān)憂，在本月早些時(shí)候的30年期債券標(biāo)售中表現(xiàn)得很明顯：當(dāng)時(shí)財(cái)政部不得不提供異常高的收益率溢價(jià)來(lái)出售債券，導(dǎo)致市場(chǎng)短暫暴跌。 據(jù)媒體援引法國(guó)巴黎銀行美國(guó)利率策略主管William Marshall稱，“此次重要的美債標(biāo)售可謂一場(chǎng)對(duì)于投資者們的‘理智檢查’，即數(shù)據(jù)的演變是否已經(jīng)以一種有意義的方式轉(zhuǎn)向更加穩(wěn)定、更具建設(shè)性的方式，來(lái)吸收久期供應(yīng)?！?/p> Marshall指出：
編輯/tolk Source： Wall Street News Author： Yuan Wei A critical sale of US bonds will help measure whether investors are convinced that the wave of US debt sell-offs in 2023 has come to an end． The “huge rebound” that has recently begun in the US Treasury bond market will face a major test tonight： the US Treasury will bid for a 20-year treasury bond with a scale of 16 billion US dollars． A critical sale of US bonds will help measure whether investors are convinced that the wave of US debt sell-offs in 2023 has come to an end． Spurred by slowing inflation and signs of cooling economic growth， overseas traders and investors have recently plunged headlong into the US Treasury bond market． They believe the Fed has raised interest rates and will switch to cutting interest rates by the middle of next year． At the same time， the increase in bid scale previously announced by the US Treasury Department was less than expected by many bond traders， especially long-term bond bids， which allayed some market supply concerns． Driven by this strong purchasing power， US debt ended a six-month decline and pushed the 10-year US bond market to rise 2.6% in November． This was the biggest increase since March， when people feared the banking crisis would drag down the economy． However， this month‘s frenzied rise in US debt prices is about to begin$U.S． 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield（US10Y.BD）$It was pushed to the lowest level since September， making demand for the US Treasury’s 20-year treasury bond bidding this week an important indicator for investors to determine whether there is a risk of a reversal in recent trends． Over the past year， the confidence of bond market traders has been hit by an unexpectedly strong economy and stubborn inflation． The growing federal deficit is another reason， testing the market‘s ability to absorb all new debt． For most of the past three years， the US Treasury‘s bid on 20-year Treasury bonds has been a market burden since demand for 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds was far worse than that of 10-year and 30-year treasury bonds． At the same time， 20-year Treasury bonds were never sold during the US Thanksgiving week when the holiday was shortened during this period． Whether tonight’s bidding will be a success has attracted particular attention． Concerns about whether the market will be able to accept the sale of large amounts of US bonds were evident in the 30-year bond auction earlier this month： at the time， the Treasury had to offer an unusually high yield premium to sell bonds， causing the market to plummet for a short time． According to media quoting William Marshall， head of US interest rate strategy at BNP Paribas， “This important US bond bid can be described as a ‘intellectual check’ for investors， that is， whether the evolution of data has moved in a meaningful way to a more stable and more constructive approach to absorb long-term supply．” Marshall stated：
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